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Shakeel Hashim

While some things like income inequality or the mistreatment of non-human animals seem to be getting worse, there’s surprising data showing that some things are going much better than you might think.

Is the world getting worse or better?

It can be hard to look at the news these days without feeling sad. Pandemics, war, climate change — things can seem really bleak. If you feel that way, you're not alone: 

, only 6% of Americans and 4% of Brits thought the world was getting better.

While some things like income inequality or the mistreatment of non-human animals seem to be getting worse, there’s surprising data showing that some things are going much better than you might think. On many measures you can think of — poverty, health, safety — things are much, much better than they used to be. People are living longer, happier and healthier lives than ever before. We've made tremendous headway with improving people's lives even in the last two generations alone, and you can play a significant role in making sure we continue that progress. But to do so, we need to take a balanced view of if the world is getting better or worse.

Let’s start by seeing how it has gotten better.

As an example of the progress we’ve made, take poverty: since 1990, over one billion people have been lifted out of 

 even while the world's population has increased by 2.5 billion people.

Over the long term, things look even better. Just 200 years ago, around 90% of the population lived in extreme poverty. By 2018, it was around 10%.

The reduction in global poverty has enabled all sorts of other positive changes. Life expectancy has shot up all over the world, more than doubling in Africa since 1900.

The number of children who die is rapidly falling, too — the total number of deaths of under-5-year-olds was more than halved between 1990 and 2019, even after considering population growth.

And we're making really good progress on eliminating some of the most deadly parts of life, like 

. Malaria deaths in Africa alone were almost halved in just 15 years.

The improvements aren't just limited to health and poverty. 

 than ever before; and while 88% of people were illiterate in 1800, 86% of people were literate in 2015.

Even in cases where things may have been getting worse in the short-term, looking at long-term trends puts the badness in perspective. Take violent deaths caused by war: looking at the short-term trends, we see things worsened over the 2010s, and this might continue in the 2020s due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. But things were much worse in the 20th century:

Climate change is another example where, even though things are bad and progress is slow, we might be making a bit more progress than you’d realise. Yes, 

global CO2 emissions have been increasing

 too. But if we zoom in on some of the major polluters, we can see that advocates for reducing emissions are starting to achieve their goals: emissions are falling in the US, EU and UK.

Consumption-based CO2 has also decreased (albeit more slowly), even though populations have grown and GDP has risen.

The amount of energy generated by renewable sources is rapidly increasing, too. In fact, solar energy deployment has repeatedly 

But all this progress doesn't mean we can rest on our laurels.

For one thing, there are some important measures by which things are getting worse — and we need to do something about it. Take inequality, which has been getting much worse in many countries, most notably the 

. And even though we’ve reduced poverty globally, around 700 million people still live on less than $1.90 per day — and that's 700 million too many. Meanwhile, the majority of the world lives on less than $10 a day, which is still an awful lot less than people in rich countries are used to. There are proven ways to improve these people’s 

, such as cash transfers: we just need to give more money to do it.

What's more, although things have been getting better for humans, they've been getting much worse for non-human animals. 

. That means more non-human animals in captivity, many of whom are (and will be) living in awful conditions. If you care about the well-being of non-human animals, this is a very concerning trend — and it means there's room to do a lot more work 

Perhaps the most worrying trend of all is the significant increase in existential risk. As Oxford philosopher and Giving What We Can co-founder Toby Ord has written, "for the first time in humanity's long history, we have the capacity to destroy ourselves." We've invented incredibly powerful tools like nuclear weapons, biotechnology and artificial intelligence, all of which have the potential to 

. And we’ve damaged the environment to such an extent that climate change is likely to harm many people, and, in worst-case scenarios, could even lead to our extinction. That means that while most things have been getting better over time, the risk of human extinction or unrecoverable collapse of civilisation is increasing, not decreasing. Ord thinks that though our existential risk was around 1% throughout the twentieth century, the current risk of existential catastrophe within the next 100 years is 17%.

That's a really high number, and it's why Ord and many other activists 

donate to initiatives that can lower that existential risk

. We’ve made so much progress in the last century, and it would be a huge shame if future generations weren’t around to appreciate it.

We should be optimistic about how much better the world can be

When we put our minds to it, we really can make a difference. Happily, more and more people seem to be realising that: the amount of money committed to effective giving has 

 since 2015. We've achieved a lot in the last century, and there’s still so much we can do. As Open Philanthropy's Holden Karnofsky 

, for most of human history, our welfare was either fairly stagnant or worsening. The (relatively) recent big increase in welfare we've seen is only due to a phenomenal amount of effort and technological development. That progress should make us optimistic about what can be achieved when we put our minds to it — and help us imagine how much better the world can be for future generations, if we keep working to improve it.

Each of us has the power to help that process: by donating to one of the 

 we recommend, you can contribute to reducing poverty, fighting climate change, and safeguarding the long-term future. You can also take your impact even further by using your 

 to work directly on these sorts of problems. Through work like that, we can leave the world better than we found it — and ensure better lives for generations to come.

Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think

Caroline Wood

Expecting billionaires to solve global poverty can distract us from the fact that right now we can make a significant difference to help improve the lives of the world’s poorest.

 Why philanthropy isn’t just for billionaires

No matter how many times you read it, the statistic is staggering: 

the richest 1% own around 46% of the entire world’s wealth

have a collective net worth of $1.3 trillion

. The wealth these individuals possess is beyond comprehension for most of us – we simply can’t get our heads around the numbers. Against these sums, any amount we donate to charity from our personal incomes may seem insignificant. So would the most effective strategy to address global poverty be to simply redistribute as much of these billionaire fortunes as possible to the world’s poorest citizens?

Billionaires could make a big difference...

In theory, redistributing all the world’s wealth could make a massive difference to those currently living in poverty. As a rough illustration, 

in 2020 world GDP was approximately $84.7 trillion

. If this had been divided equally among the global population at the time (7.8 billion), this would have given each person around $10,860. At this amount, most people currently on the planet would have a significantly better life. 

, for an average country with a GDP per capita of $10,000, 

virtually everyone has access to electricity

. In the poorest countries today, however, average life expectancy can be below 54 years, child mortality over 10%, literacy rates below 25%, and fewer than one in ten people with access to electricity.

But are billionaires donating enough of their wealth to make a difference? Indeed, there are many exceptionally wealthy philanthropists who have already poured billions into deserving causes. 

Bill and Melinda Gates, for instance, have given away almost $30 billion to date

 which aims to fight ‘poverty, disease, and inequity around the world.’ Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, meanwhile, 

 focusing on the arts, education, the environment, government innovation, and public health to ‘ensure better, longer lives for the greatest number of people.’ In 1971, 

an endowment from American Businessman Daniel K. Ludwig established an international consortium of cancer institutes

, which continues to generate world-leading research into these diseases to this day.

, who has promised to give away more than 99% of his $80 billion-plus fortune, and has already donated over $45 billion so far, mainly towards poverty and healthcare causes. In 2010, Buffet went even further in his philanthropic zeal by co-founding 

, which encourages fellow billionaires to donate most of their wealth to charities. As of 2021, the pledge had 231 signatories - indicating a collective immense fortune available to donate.

…but we shouldn’t rely on their philanthropy to solve global poverty

It might be tempting to rely on altruistic billionaires to solve global poverty, but two key issues make this problematic.

1. Even billionaires don’t have enough money to solve poverty

Simply put, even all the world’s billionaires don’t have enough money to solve all the world’s problems. If billionaires were to divide 

 today (defined here as earning less than $1,200 per year), this would only equal a 

 payment of around $5,000 per person - a significant amount, but nowhere near enough to lift everyone out of poverty for good. For reference, the US 

 income of less than $12,880 to be living in poverty. This means that, despite the substantial impact billionaires’ philanthropy could have, there is still a role for smaller donors like ourselves.

2. We have no guarantee that billionaires will donate effectively (or at all)

For a start, not every billionaire chooses to engage in philanthropy. In 2021, for instance, 

less than 9% of the world’s 2,755 billionaires

 had signed The Giving Pledge. Meanwhile, those that do donate are at complete liberty to give their money as they choose, without having to be accountable to anyone or transparent about how their donations are spent. There is a risk, therefore, that a billionaire donor will focus on causes personally important to them, rather than the 

. As an extreme example, when British antique dealer Ben Rea died in 1988, 

he left almost his entire $12.5 million estate to his cat Blackie,

Some may argue that higher taxes on the wealthiest citizens help to address income inequality. But 

tax systems in rich countries aren’t devised to help the global poor

. The global poor can’t vote for legislation in high-income countries, so politicians in these countries aren’t incentivised to send money to them. Furthermore, 

the foreign aid budgets of these countries are minuscule,

 meaning that we need charity as well, not just taxes.

It’s clear that we shouldn’t wait for billionaires alone to solve poverty — their actions are oftentimes too uncertain, and likely wouldn’t be enough even if they all donated to effective charities. Small donors might not change the entire world, but they can make a world of change to those who receive their donations. Also consider this: being ‘worth a billion’ is a highly arbitrary measure of personal wealth. If you are reading this now as a reasonably well-off citizen of a developed country, 

then you are likely still a member of the richest 10% of the world’s population

. This means that your quality of life is already drastically better than that of most people on the planet. If we truly want to address global income inequality, then we also have a moral imperative to act now. Like any habit, giving generously grows stronger when reinforced through practice: if we start now, our ‘giving reflex’ will be more developed by the time we earn more.

Furthermore, as American entrepreneur Tim Ferriss points out in a blog post titled 

, “[Empowerment] depends on acting early and precisely, not lots of money”. For instance, 

it costs less than one dollar to give a child treatment for parasitic worms

. Analyses of this charity’s effectiveness have demonstrated that 

this has a significant impact on lifetime earnings

, through better health and increased time in school. In comparison, the cost of treating the effects of poverty for that child (and the eventual family they may have) over decades would be considerably greater than the cost of deworming treatment.

 by donating to highly effective charities. A good place to start is by 

checking out our list of recommended charities

giving to others can make us richer on so many levels beyond money.

having money only increases our emotional well-being up to a point

 (around an annual income of $75,000). Another found that money does increase happiness, but one needs to earn progressively higher amounts to gain only small amounts of happiness.

 have found that giving to charity had positive impacts on psychological wellbeing and life satisfaction, even for 

Even toddlers have been found to experience ‘the warm glow of giving’,

 indicating that humans have a deeply-ingrained tendency to find altruistic behaviour rewarding. This appears to be supported by studies that indicate that 

giving to others activates the brain’s reward centres

hoarding for yourself can increase shame and stress hormone levels

To conclude: Yes, billionaires could – and should – do a lot more to solve global poverty, but waiting for them to do so distracts us from the fact that right now many of us can significantly help improve the lives of the world’s poorest. We can make a world of difference to those who need it most, without a major sacrifice to ourselves, all while experiencing the joy of helping others. And that is an incredible opportunity.

As Anne Frank beautifully put it: "How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world."

Martin Skadal

Martin, a social entrepreneur from Norway, shares why he took The Giving What We Can Pledge alongside what causes he's passionate about, and what his vision for the future is.

Member Profile: Martin Skadal

We recently spoke with Martin Skadal from Norway. He shared with us his effective giving story, including what motivates him to give, what issues he cares about the most, and his vision for the future.

Tell us about yourself. What keeps you busy? What makes you tick?

I'm on a journey to figure out how I possibly can do the most good. Right now I do that by running World Saving Hustle and Altruism for Youth, two NGOs working to make our world a better place.

Tell us about your effective giving journey.

My journey started with volunteering for over organizations. Then, I found some missing/neglected focus areas and started my own NGO. On that journey, I found Effective Altruism as a concept and right after that I discovered EA Norway. I've heard a lot about GiveWell and the Giving What We Can Pledge, but hesitated to join as I don't have much to give, as a result of my very minimalistic lifestyle. I then found out how I could join as a student (based on my spending and not income). I knew that even with my lifestyle, I could do it.

Why do you give? (What motivated you to give originally. What keeps you motivated now.)

I always strive to do the most good I can, but given the polluted information ecology, I find it hard to know for sure that I’m having a positive impact. Through Giving What We Can, I know that no matter how hard I try in my own way to figure out how I can do the most good, the money donated through The Pledge will most likely have a positive impact.

Why did you take the Giving What We Can pledge?

I took the pledge because I feel it's the most secure way right now to make sure that money donate is actually having a good impact. I also took the pledge because I feel it's a good idea to have a consistent habit of doing good. Furthermore, I took the pledge because I no longer have to hear "GiveWell or Giving What We Can" on 80 000 Hours podcast or other episodes mentioning it, knowing that I not yet have taken The Pledge! What are the issues in the world that you care most deeply about? I think the polluted information ecology and collective decision making are important issues. Under that, I feel topics such as animal rights (how we treat billions of animals in factory farms), human rights, and environmentalism are also particularly important.

Which organizations do you give to (and why)?

I primarily give to GiveWell and Animal Charity Evaluators based on my knowledge about them right now and the strong impact they have.

Do you try to effect change in any other way?

Yes! I have started two NGOs (which now have government funding), plus I am helping many other NGOs for free with consulting. I also try using social media (@skadal) to teach others about effective altruism.

What effective giving tips would you like to share?

, and when Rob (and others from the EA community) visit other podcasts. I would also highly recommend getting involved in other altruistic NGOs to see if you have skills that you think they would be able to make use of.

What suggestions do you have for other people considering the pledge?

If you're a student, then just start ASAP. It's so easy and does not harm your (possible) low budget. If you're working, remind yourself why you would like to give, and keep consistent with consuming content from the EA community to keep updated with what you're helping out with.

Blog

Is the world getting worse or better?

Why philanthropy isn’t just for billionaires

Member Profile: Martin Skadal

March 2022 Newsletter

Announcing our 2022 strategy and how you can help (and we're hiring!)

It's perfectly okay to be an imperfect effective altruist

Donating like a startup investor: Hits-based giving, explained

스타트업 투자자처럼 기부하기: 히트 기반 기부란 무엇인가

The value of small donations from a longtermist perspective

Why your charitable giving should be sustainable