Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED) aims to build resilience to global catastrophic food shocks through research, development, and policy recommendations.
There are many serious threats to our food systems. A nuclear war or large volcanic eruption could drastically reduce crop yields. Nuclear electromagnetic pulses or a severe pandemic could disrupt industries and food supplies on a massive scale. ALLFED believes the risk of such catastrophes in the coming decades is uncomfortably high (for example, an up to 80% chance of Multiple Breadbasket Failure this century due to simultaneous extreme weather events) and food shortages caused by these catastrophes could be deadly.
ALLFED reports that if a catastrophe occurs that is large enough to deplete 5% or more of global calorie output, or access to those calories, then the loss of food would likely kill far more people than the catastrophe itself.
We don't currently have further information about the cost-effectiveness of ALLFED beyond it doing work in a high-impact cause area and taking a reasonably promising approach.
We have varying degrees of information about the cost-effectiveness of our supported programs. We have more information about programs that impact-focused evaluators (some of which our research team expects to investigate soon as part of their evaluator investigations) have looked into, as well as programs that we’ve previously included on our list of recommended charities. We think it’s important to share the information we have with donors as we expect it will be useful in their donation decisions, but don’t want donors to mistakenly overweight the extent to which we share information about some charities and not others. Therefore, we want to clarify two things: